Negotiations between Greece and its creditors are coming down to the wire.
European stocks markets have reacted uneasily at best to this news. Those in the US, however, probably shouldn’t.
“The direct effects on the US are minimal,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist at BNP Paribas, in a meeting attended by Business Insider on Thursday.
Mortimer-Lee noted that exports from the US to Greece were less than a billion dollars of the total $2.25 trillion outflow, a miniscule amount. Additionally, exports only make up one-seventh of US GDP.
So in GDP terms, Greek exports are only .006% of the total US economy.
In an accompanying note, Mortimer-Lee also pointed out that a Greek default wouldn’t really shake up US banks either. “Bank for International Settlements Figures show that the exposures of US banks to Greece amounts to $12.7 billion, or just 0.04% of total cross border claims,” the note said.
The biggest impacts Mortimer-Lee said would be indirectly through a shaky European market.
So far, it hasn’t made much of a stir in US stocks.
“On June 22, news that Greece had made new proposals to its creditors prompted the Euro Stoxx to rally 4% on the day. The spill-over effect on the S&P was only 0.6%,” said the report.
A Greek default, however, could end up influencing the Fed.
“The Federal Reserve would probably wait and see with the Greek issue before raising rates,” said Mortimer-Lee, as this scenario could create an uncertain outlook for markets, adding, “In that case then, central bankers, when they’re uncertain, tend to do nothing.”